August 27, 2019

164. Are we on the verge of a global recession? (preview)

The markets are concerned that we are on the verge of a global recession. How do they know? Not from reading tea-leaves but by studying yield curves. An inverted yield curve has signalled every recession since the 1980s. So, Phil Dobbie asks Steve Keen, does that mean next year is going to be 2008 all over again. In short, no is the answer. 2008 was caused by a collapse in credit-based demand. We’re not seeing the same level of decline in that demand this time. So, the good news is, we might not be heading for a recession. The bad news is it more likely to be a sustained period of stagnation and central banks aren’t helping us out of it.

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